O'Toole now tied with Trudeau for "preferred Prime Minister" according to Nanos.
(twitter.com)
ELXN44
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Wtf is going on with the polls. In 2019 the pollsters didn't differ that much. They had the parties within 2 to 3 points. But now we have pollster like Mainstreet which has the CPC at 36% while Innovative has them at 29%. Far bigger spread for the parties this election cycle.
My guess would be they're trying different sampling methodologies to try and control for the covid/turnout factor. We're in fairly unprecedented territory here, so it makes sense that the pollsters would be all fucked up. They were really wrong in N.S. and in the US election.
They were wrong in the seat projection, but the last polls were pretty much spot on. The Liberals polled at 38% and the Conservatives at 36%. The results were 36.8% for the Liberals and 38.6% for the Conservatives. That's not a big error. In the same range as for the federal election in 2019.
That's quite a rapid change.
22 Aug:
Trudeau: 32%
O'Toole: 25%
3 Aug:
Trudeau: 38%
O'Toole: 17%
20 July:
Trudeau: 40%
O'Toole: 15%