The reporting period for the 2020 data is from February 1st, 2020.

Total deaths from Feb 1st to December 5th (10 month period) are 2,685,404.

If we average out the deaths from the past 10 months (2,685,404 / 10 * 12) we can estimate 3,222,484 deaths by February 1st, 2021.

Let's assume an increase in total deaths of 1%, year over year, using the 2018 number (2,839,205):

2,839,205 * 1.01 = 2,867,597 expected deaths for 2019

2,867,597 * 1.01 = 2,896,273 expected deaths for 2020

3,222,484 - 2,896,273 = 326,211 estimated excess deaths

I think this number is on the higher side, since the flu has all but disappeared and this winter season will have less deaths than seasonally expected. It is difficult to estimate what proportion of these 'excess' deaths are due to Covid and what proportion are due to the response to Covid (lockdowns, economic devastation, suicides, drug & alcohol abuse, undiagnosed diseases, delayed surgeries, etc.)

Also, for next year's 2021 deaths, a lot of people who would have died anyways succumbed to Covid (pull-forward effect from long-term care/elderly deaths). This means we can expect fewer deaths than would otherwise be predicted by the modelling for 2021.

The reporting period for the 2020 data is from February 1st, 2020.

Total deaths from Feb 1st to December 5th (10 month period) are 2,685,404.

If we average out the deaths from the past 10 months (2,685,404 / 10 * 12) we can estimate 3,222,484 deaths by February 1st, 2021.

Let's assume an increase in total deaths of 1% year over year using the 2018 number (2,839,205):

2,839,205 * 1.01 = 2,867,597 expected deaths for 2019

2,867,597 * 1.01 = 2,896,273 expected deaths for 2020

3,222,484 - 2,896,273 = 326,211 estimated excess deaths

I think this number is on the higher side, since the flu has all but disappeared and this winter season will have less deaths than seasonally expected.

Also is difficult to estimate what proportion of these 'excess' deaths are due to Covid and what proportion are due to the response to Covid (lockdowns, economic devastation, suicides, drug & alcohol abuse, undiagnosed diseases, delayed surgeries, etc).

Also, for next year's 2021 deaths, a lot of people who would have died anyways have succumbed to Covid (pull-forward effect from long-term care/elderly deaths). This means we can expect fewer deaths than would otherwise be predicted by the modelling for 2021.

The reporting period for the 2020 data is from February 1st, 2020.

Total deaths from Feb 1st to December 5th (10 month period) are 2,685,404.

If we average out the deaths from the past 10 months (2,685,404 / 10 * 12) we can estimate 3,222,484 deaths by February 1st, 2021.

Let's assume an increase in total deaths of 1% year over year using the 2018 number (2,839,205):

2,839,205 * 1.01 = 2,867,597 expected deaths for 2019

2,867,597 * 1.01 = 2,896,273 expected deaths for 2020

3,222,484 - 2,896,273 = 326,211 estimated excess deaths

I think this number is on the higher side, since the flu has all but disappeared and this winter season will have less deaths than seasonally expected. Also is difficult to estimate what proportion of these 'excess' deaths are due to Covid and what proportion are due to the response to Covid (lockdowns, economic devastation, suicides, drug & alcohol abuse, undiagnosed diseases, delayed surgeries, etc).

Also, for next year's 2021 deaths, a lot of people who would have died anyways have succumbed to Covid (pull-forward effect from long-term care/elderly deaths). This means we can expect fewer deaths than would otherwise be predicted by the modelling for 2021.

The reporting period for the 2020 data is from February 1st, 2020.

Total deaths from Feb 1st to December 5th (10 month period) are 2,685,404.

If we average out the deaths from the past 10 months (2,685,404 / 10 * 12) we can estimate 3,222,484 deaths by February 1st, 2021.

Let's assume an increase in total deaths of 1% year over year using the 2018 number (2,839,205):

2,839,205 * 1.01 = 2,867,597 expected deaths for 2019

2,867,597 * 1.01 = 2,896,273 expected deaths for 2020

3,222,484 - 2,896,273 = 326,211 estimated 'excess' deaths

I think this number is on the higher side, since the flu has all but disappeared and this winter season will have less deaths than seasonally expected.

Also, for next year's 2021 deaths, a lot of people who would have died anyways have succumbed to Covid (pull-forward effect from long-term care/elderly deaths). This means we can expect fewer deaths than would otherwise be predicted by the modelling for 2021.

The reporting period for the 2020 data is from February 1st

Total deaths from Feb 1st to December 5th (10 month period) = 2,685,404

If we average out the deaths from the past 10 months (2,685,404 / 10 * 12) we can estimate 3,222,484 deaths by February 1st 2021.

Let's assume an increase in total deaths of 1% year over year using the 2018 number.

2,839,205 * 1.01 = 2,867,597 expected deaths for 2019

2,867,597 * 1.01 = 2,896,273 expected deaths for 2020

3,222,484 - 2,896,273 = 326,211 estimated 'excess' deaths

I think this number is on the higher side, since the flu has all but disappeared and this winter season will have less deaths than seasonally expected.

Also, for next year's 2021 deaths, a lot of people who would have died anyways have already succumbed to Covid (pull-forward effect from long-term cares/elderly deaths). This means we can expect fewer deaths than would otherwise be predicted by the modelling for 2021.