CPC: 66% chance of winning Beauce.
PPC: 34% chance of winning Beauce.

https://338canada.com/24007e.htm#odds

If you wanna call that a "tossup", sure.

Also keeping in mind that in 2019, 338 projected Max would win that riding by about 4 points (mean), but he actually lost by ten points, so they overestimated Max by 14 points.

Apply that here, and you're well into "Safe CPC" territory.

CPC: 66% chance of winning Beauce. PPC: 34% chance of winning Beauce.

https://338canada.com/24007e.htm#odds

If you wanna call that a "tossup", sure.

Also keeping in mind that in 2019, 338 projected Max would win that riding by about 4 points (mean), but he actually lost by ten points, so they overestimated Max by 14 points.

Apply that here, and you're well into "Safe CPC" territory.