2018 total number of deaths vs. 2020 total number of deaths in the US
(media.omegacanada.win)
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If someone told you on January 1st, 2020 that the whole world would be shut down because of a pandemic, I don't think a single person would be able to justify it for the near same amount of total deaths from the year before.
Christ, I'd need to see nearly 100 million deaths worldwide from COVID to justify any of the shit that has gone on.
Sources:
2018: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm/
2020: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3hy7dlMLzeHe-gFWS8hzSzbyKJGDU8JYKX5DlStl0qTnnq-a75p1xKE-I
I would recommend checking out Ethical Skeptic for numbers and data analysis.
https://theethicalskeptic.com/
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic
The reporting period for the 2020 data is from February 1st, 2020.
Total deaths from Feb 1st to December 5th (10 month period) are 2,685,404.
If we average out the deaths from the past 10 months (2,685,404 / 10 * 12) we can estimate 3,222,484 deaths by February 1st, 2021.
Let's assume an increase in total deaths of 1%, year over year, using the 2018 number (2,839,205):
2,839,205 * 1.01 = 2,867,597 expected deaths for 2019
2,867,597 * 1.01 = 2,896,273 expected deaths for 2020
3,222,484 - 2,896,273 = 326,211 estimated excess deaths
I think this number is on the higher side, since the flu has all but disappeared and this winter season will have less deaths than seasonally expected. It is difficult to estimate what proportion of these 'excess' deaths are due to Covid and what proportion are due to the response to Covid (lockdowns, economic devastation, suicides, drug & alcohol abuse, undiagnosed diseases, delayed surgeries, etc.)
Also, for next year's 2021 deaths, a lot of people who would have died anyways succumbed to Covid (pull-forward effect from long-term care/elderly deaths). This means we can expect fewer deaths than would otherwise be predicted by the modelling for 2021.