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posted ago by baizuocuck ago by baizuocuck +47 / -1

The COVID epidemic curve is already starting to flatten. People just don't know it yet because the "daily cases" that they report in the mainstream media every day are not actually daily cases. They just report the net change in the cases daily. A lot of these newly discovered cases were infections that happened well into the past. Cases are a very laggy indicator to begin with. And hospitalization and death data is even more of a laggy indicator for obvious reasons.

Case data is so laggy that I suspect people don't immediately go to get tested after they first show symptoms. In fact a lot of people never bother to get tested. Because why the fuck would you unless you live with or come into contact with vulnerable people?

If you look at the April 25 .csv report from Ontario today, the 7-day epidemic curve peak is showing to be April 5th-11th. If you look at the April 20 .csv report from Ontario, 5 days ago, the epidemic curve is showing to be... April 5th-11th. And the same is true for all the .csv reports from April 21, 22, 23 and 24 as well. Six reports in a row. And it's April 25th right now. We're getting more sunshine. The seasons are changing. In 2020, the epidemic curve peaked on April 10-16. You'd expect a similar pattern to emerge this year.