New Poll shows PPC at 5% support
(twitter.com)
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Cool what's their seat projections now?
Spoiler: Still zero.
Why, because Ekos posted an outlier one point higher than usual?
Every time you guys see a peak in the sawtooth pattern that is federal election polling you're like "This is it! Our meteoric rise has commenced!". Then it drops back down to a valley. Rinse and repeat.
All you need to know about the PPC is this line right here.. You've plateaued.
Oh and whatever 338 is projecting for Benrier in Beauce, you can knock about 20-25% off of that since that's how much they overpolled in 2019.
Remind me again why I shouldn't believe you guys are just Liberal Party astroturfers?
They projected 2.7% for the PPC the day before the 2019 election. And they ended up with 1.6% of the actual vote. They projected nearly double what the PPC would actually get at the ballot box.
So based on their current 2.5% projection, if an election were held tomorrow, you could expect the PPC to come out with 1.5% of the vote and again, zero seats.
And no, that polling error in 2019 wasn't a bug that might have worked out by the pollsters since then. They expect minor parties to poll high in every election. It'll be the same next time for the PPC as well as the Greens, Bloc and NDP.
Minor parties usually poll higher than what their actual results end up being because there's a segment of minor party supporters who, though they'll tell a pollster over the phone they intent to vote for the minor party, get cold feet at the ballot box and decide in the end not to piss their votes away. It's always like that.
I meant 20-25% of his total (actual, not projected) vote total. I.E. his actual vote total was 22.2% (or eight points) smaller than projected total.