The loonie is soaring above forecasts and come Wednesday could fly even higher
(financialpost.com)
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relative value is not absolute value
all currencies are declining in absolute purchasing power except maybe the swiss franc
CAD's only saving grace giving it relative strength is that it is tied to commodity values. more specifically the expected probability that Canada will get it's shit together and extract/export said commodities. Once people understand that this probability is 0 the currency will adjust accordingly.
It's not about Canada getting it's shit together. The oil price doubled since March 2020 and is expected to go up. Thus the CAD is soaring.
yes it is..
we can't even get that oil to market in significant quantities.. so the appreciation is speculation on us being able to in the future.
Oh we can. Will an expansion in production be possible? It already is. Oil exports would have to increase by a pretty large margin for it to be above capacity. Just because keystone xl expansion was cancelled doesn't mean that three other major expansions didn't go through.
The biggest buyer will be the US who, for some reason, shot themselves in the foot on oil.
We are producing more oil than ever and we are bringing it to market. Even while Trudeau is promising to "decarbonize" our economy.
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/crude-oil-production
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2510006301
Same thing happened under Harper when the Loonie reached parity with the USD. Oil price back then was even higher.
Hopefully due to oil and gas the loonies goes above the USD again and I can start collecting US dollars for the inevitable reversion to the mean.