Double jabby Have Double the Infection Rate, Data From Iceland gov Shows. Not the double double they had in mind...
(thorsteinnsiglaugsson.wordpress.com)
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"(Originally published in Icelandic in Morgunbladid on January 8th. 2022)
After December 20th., the 14-day incidence of Covid-19 infection by vaccination status took a very unexpected turn in Iceland. The infection rate per 100,000 of fully vaccinated adults with booster is now eleven times higher than on December 20th, and the infection rate of double-vaccinated adults seven times higher. At the same time, infections among unvaccinated people have grown by a factor of 2.6 only. Among children, we see a similar change; a tenfold increase among the fully vaccinated while the rate among the unvaccinated is 2.4 times higher than on December 20th.
This change can hardly be explained away by changes in behavior, such a sudden and decisive change of behavior between groups is impossible. It is also unlikely that testing has suddenly increased this sharply among some groups and not others. We know the protection against infection from vaccination wanes rapidly, but it is out of the question that it should drop so suddenly. The most likely explanation is the new omicron variant. Foreign data also indicate that the currently available vaccines have little or no effect against omicron-infection.
The data published on covid.is are weighted, the different size of the groups is adjusted for. This means we can use them to conclude on probability of infection. At present, triple-vaccinated people are only 30% less likely to get infected than unvaccinated adults, and for vaccinated children the difference is only 15%. This small difference decreases rapidly in both groups. The biggest news, however, is that double-vaccinated people are now 90% more likely to get infected than the unvaccinated. This suggests that the protection provided by two doses of vaccine is in fact less than none, it is the opposite.
(After this article was published in Morgunbladid, the main national newspaper of Iceland on January 8th the Icelandic chief-epidemologist has tried to explain this away by claiming the number of unvaccinated people is overestimated in the data. The problem is that if this was the fact they would have had to overestimate this figure by 90% to get the rate for the double-vaccinated down to the level of the unvaccinated. This is very unlikely for official data, published daily for over six months and quoted by the responsible officials at least weekly. A 5-10% error might be tolerable, but it would only bring the difference down to 70-80% instead of 90%.)"
Sources: https://thorsteinnsiglaugsson.wordpress.com/2022/01/09/does-vaccination-increase-the-probability-of-infection/
https://www.covid.is/data
A bit out of date, but six weeks ago in the US "unvaccinated persons had 20X the risk of dying from COVID-19"
See graph labeled "Rates of COVID-19 Cases by Vaccination Status and Booster Dose" at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status
Thank you for the CDC data. This is a very handy chart. I'm pleased to see that the case and death rates have dropped a lot, in aggregate, and all age cohorts. This is tremendous good news for society, it seems this is behind us now. This would seem logical, considering we are at or approaching saturation point for jabby rollout.
Let's break down the data dear metacanada forum: Flipping the chart to 'deaths per 100K' from "cases" at it's peak in aggregate - Aug 21/21. Non jabby 13.92 vs jabbed 1.03, a large difference in death rate of 14x.
Oct 30 21, Last date avail- 4.98 vs. 0.38 A big drop.
Next up, the least likely to die, & the most, children up to 17, and elderly 80+. Children peak, sept 11, 2021 (odd coincidence on the date) 0.44 non jab, 0 jabbed. Oct 30th, 0.02 non jab, and oddly jabbed exactly the same risk of dying 0.02. (why the rise? Why bother getting jabby at all?)
80+ Peak Aug 21, non jabby 64.88 vs jabbed 13.43 30th oct latest, non jabby 28.7 vs jabbed 5.3
The rates of death per 100K has fallen a lot since peak on the non jabby, one can only speculate as to why, for eg, natural herd immunity incidnce being larger, the evolution of the pathogen being driven to a less virulent mutation (apparently omicron being nigh on harmless according to South African docs), or perhaps growing pre hospitalisation intervention through the use of doctor supervised Ivermectin, HCQ, Budesinide, or even patient OTC self administration of anti histamines such as Bendryl or Periactin. The charts do not appear to have a way to factor in recorded average comorbidity or the deaths. The charts don't go back to 2020, so perhaps the CFR/IFR was higher and probability of death was higher.
Pulling back to a 35,000ft view in perspective of what the charts really mean, and putting it into a more probability relateable slant. IOW, based on who's died at what rate before, How likely are YOU going to die from this?
Aggregate peak Aug 21/21 on average, non jabby 0.01% died vs jabby, 0.001%. 99.98% survived non jab, vs 99.998%. So, 10x the probability of dying. However, when survival is already at 99.98% Id wager many would shrug and take their chances, especially if they are a younger cohort.
At that probability, even at peak, people have a nearly 10x higher chance of dying of septicemia, 0.9%. ( https://discovertheodds.com/what-are-the-odds-of-dying-of/ )
But lets go nuts, and say, for arguments sake that everyone has the same chance of dying as our most senior cohort sans pokey. At peak even. 0.06%, 99.94% survived.
Turning to the latest numbers from the CDC, the news is even more optimistic- 30th Oct in aggregate, non jab 0.004% 99.996% Survived, jabbed 0.0003% 99.9997% survived.
Now to the least risk group, although at this point, saying 'risk' seems a bit silly- Children up to 17, non jab 0.00001% chance of dying, vs jab, the exact same chance or a 99.99998% chance of surviving. I posit we can safely say, those are great odds for the kids.
Everyone else no matter what age is going to be somewhere in the middle.
2022, and after 2 long years, it's over. Thank god. Now isn't that something to be happy about in the new year folks? Cheers! Ill raise a glass to that.
Yes. The vaccines have helped a lot.
And now we are at 90%, of jab rollout saturation the worst is behind us. Anyone wants to receive the jab, go nuts.
If someone out there wants to cut their chance of death on average by 4 thousandths of a percent, by all means, get the jab if that is important to you. Or 2. Or maybe even 3. Or 4. Heck get them every other month if you and your medical professional feel it best.