"due to regulatory action by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket is currently restricted from operating in the U.S. One could wonder how accurate it will be predicting the US elections without US allowed to participate" https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/25/from-presidential-races-to-popcorn-flicks-how-polymarket-predicts-the-future/

"it’s possible that Trump’s odds shifted on Polymarket as it was the result of buying activity from one or a handful of big-ticket bettors rather than a material shift in the election landscape." https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/07/trumps-election-odds-spike-on-polymarket-as-musk-touts-election-betting-site/