When they shut down all the small businesses and just left the big box stores open, they ended up concentrating all the shoppers together in a few big centralized locations, turning them into daily super-spreader events.
Now they're imposing curfews, as if that will somehow limit people's exposure to each other by keeping them at home more I guess?
Well here's the thing: Bars and restaurants are already closed. The only thing people are going out at night for is logistical activities like shopping - things they have to do every day regardless of curfews.
So all a curfew will accomplish is to shorten the available hours people have to carry out those logistical activities (like shopping), which will concentrate everyone into the stores during the remaining hours, which will increase social contact/exposure, not reduce it.
So like the small business shutdowns, this measure can only make things worse.
I don't believe for one second that there's any modeling that pointed to this being a good idea, because it defies logic on the face of it. At this point it's painfully obvious that governments are just taking drastic actions so they can be seen to be "doing something". And worse, there's no exit strategy. Nothing they're doing is working. None of these measures will bring an end to the pandemic (indeed they'll only make it worse), so where's the light at the end of the tunnel here? Is there one? Or is this the "new normal"?
Oh and they still don't know if the vaccines work on the new strains yet BTW.
The absolute vast majority of anti-vaxxers are 30 to 40 year old wine moms. I don't care if they get Covid or if their children get Covid. Only one out a thousand of them will get a severe case. What's important is that those old folks in care homes get the vaccine asap. And I bet those aren't as anti-vaxx as the general population. There is a care home like an hour away from me, in Wakaw, Saskatchewan. Every single member of this home, 44 to be precise, go infected with Covid. 4 of them are already dead and another dozen of them landed in an ICU. If 44 suburban moms, dads and kids got sick with Covid there would be probably just one ICU case under these. This is what we should get under control as soon as possible.
Here in Peel (Ontario) we don't even bother to put nursing home residents in the ICU for the most part. The died with COVID-19 rate in Peel for 65+ year olds is 365% higher than the ICU admission with COVID-19 rate for 65+ year olds. 432 seniors died since January 31st. We only admitted 93 seniors since January 31st into ICU while total hospitalizations for seniors is 714. So only 13% of the seniors we hospitalize ever get sent to the ICU. And our ICU capacity is still only 88%. We triage before we ever hit capacity. The median age of those who die with COVID here is 85. But the median age of those admitted to ICU with COVID is 63.
For small town Saskatchewan to put LTC residents in the ICU, community spread must be fairly minimal there.
When I found out that the median ICU patient in Peel is an obese 63 year old with Type II diabetes and heart disease, I started to feel less sympathetic when nurses whined about the hospitals being "overwhelmed". If you're an obese fat fuck and you didn't make a serious effort to lose weight the last 10 months to boost your Vitamin D absorption rate and immune system, you have no right to force other people to stay home because you're afraid.
That's pretty much normal, even without Covid. I talked to a general manager of a hospital and they said that since ICU beds are really expensive, they don't have much. An ICU load of 80% is standard. They have few extra beds in case of a mass causality incident or a harsh flu season, but it's not like there are many days were less than 50% of ICU beds are free.
Wakaw is a quite small town. Population of only 900. They don't have an hospital. The Covid patients were all send to Saskatoon. And since care homes are a decent income source for small towns, they fight for every patient.