Also keeping in mind that in 2019, 338 projected Max would win that riding by about 4 points (mean), but he actually lost by ten points, so they overestimated Max by 14 points.
Apply that here, and you're well into "Safe CPC" territory.
Yeah it was a tossup in 2019, Max's good name with the locals wasn't enough to carry him into a seat. I suspect it didn't help that he didn't campaign in his riding until the last week of the election. Local riding predictions are hard to be accurate anyways since polling is limited. There was polling for Beauce last time just because Max was in a toss up race and his seat had implications such as PPC winning a seat or not.
CPC: 66% chance of winning Beauce.
PPC: 34% chance of winning Beauce.
https://338canada.com/24007e.htm#odds
If you wanna call that a "tossup", sure.
Also keeping in mind that in 2019, 338 projected Max would win that riding by about 4 points (mean), but he actually lost by ten points, so they overestimated Max by 14 points.
Apply that here, and you're well into "Safe CPC" territory.
Yeah it was a tossup in 2019, Max's good name with the locals wasn't enough to carry him into a seat. I suspect it didn't help that he didn't campaign in his riding until the last week of the election. Local riding predictions are hard to be accurate anyways since polling is limited. There was polling for Beauce last time just because Max was in a toss up race and his seat had implications such as PPC winning a seat or not.