Iran is acting up right now for the same reason Russia is acting up, which is the same reason North Korea is acting up and the same reason Al Qaeda is acting up, as well as every other US adversary on the face of the earth: They've detected weakness in the White House, and in order to raise their prestige, these adversaries are taking advantage like a pack of hyenas nipping at a tired, alzheimer's-addled lion as it lays there dying.
Can't agree more about the response to weakness. The real and symbolic strength of Trump (recall the use of the MOAB; "fire & fury"; etc) shut up a lot of Klingon-types who only respect boldness. This comes up in Conrad Black's book on President Trump, which is worth the read, though not as good as his other presidential biographies. The Al Qaeda one is particularly interesting though, and I wonder if someone can help me make heads or tails of it...
Mike Pillsbury discusses the extent of China's involvement in Afghanistan, first when the Soviets were there (p. 80-83; PDF linked below), and then when the Allies went in post 9/11. Ancient Chinese stratagems are apparently maintained wisdom (p. 42): avoid encirclement at all costs, important to keep in mind as China shares a border with Afghanistan. This is, Pillsbury argues, part of the reason why the Communist Chinese helped America undermine the Soviets (even though the CCP was a fair-weather ally and oftentimes a CCCP beneficiary); why the Chinese helped provide American-bought armaments to the mujahedeen in Afghanistan. It's also why the CCP directly and indirectly aided both the Taliban and Al Qaeda after September 11th.
I wonder if much of the recent noise about Afghanistan is--if not just deep state rumblings and last-ditch efforts to keep America enmeshed in the region with the deadline 24 days away--is more than just jihadist threats manageable by a few drone or cruise missile strikes; if it's an Al Qaeda emboldened by renewed CCP support. (Now, I can't imagine the CCP's extermination of Uyghurs is palatable to other Muslims, though it's important to recognize that regionalism, tribalism, sectarianism, and ethnicity often trump religious affinities, even for extremists.) Though the CCP has a track record with them, here it's conjecture, but strategically, why wouldn't you want to continue to sap American resources and divert antipathy away from the homeland?
Thoughts? Is it just a matter of death cultists raising their voices, or do you imagine there's a bigger play in the mountains?
Iran is acting up right now for the same reason Russia is acting up, which is the same reason North Korea is acting up and the same reason Al Qaeda is acting up, as well as every other US adversary on the face of the earth: They've detected weakness in the White House, and in order to raise their prestige, these adversaries are taking advantage like a pack of hyenas nipping at a tired, alzheimer's-addled lion as it lays there dying.
Can't agree more about the response to weakness. The real and symbolic strength of Trump (recall the use of the MOAB; "fire & fury"; etc) shut up a lot of Klingon-types who only respect boldness. This comes up in Conrad Black's book on President Trump, which is worth the read, though not as good as his other presidential biographies. The Al Qaeda one is particularly interesting though, and I wonder if someone can help me make heads or tails of it...
Mike Pillsbury discusses the extent of China's involvement in Afghanistan, first when the Soviets were there (p. 80-83; PDF linked below), and then when the Allies went in post 9/11. Ancient Chinese stratagems are apparently maintained wisdom (p. 42): avoid encirclement at all costs, important to keep in mind as China shares a border with Afghanistan. This is, Pillsbury argues, part of the reason why the Communist Chinese helped America undermine the Soviets (even though the CCP was a fair-weather ally and oftentimes a CCCP beneficiary); why the Chinese helped provide American-bought armaments to the mujahedeen in Afghanistan. It's also why the CCP directly and indirectly aided both the Taliban and Al Qaeda after September 11th.
I wonder if much of the recent noise about Afghanistan is--if not just deep state rumblings and last-ditch efforts to keep America enmeshed in the region with the deadline 24 days away--is more than just jihadist threats manageable by a few drone or cruise missile strikes; if it's an Al Qaeda emboldened by renewed CCP support. (Now, I can't imagine the CCP's extermination of Uyghurs is palatable to other Muslims, though it's important to recognize that regionalism, tribalism, sectarianism, and ethnicity often trump religious affinities, even for extremists.) Though the CCP has a track record with them, here it's conjecture, but strategically, why wouldn't you want to continue to sap American resources and divert antipathy away from the homeland?
Thoughts? Is it just a matter of death cultists raising their voices, or do you imagine there's a bigger play in the mountains?
Hundred Year Marathon: https://elkitab.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/by-Michael-Pillsbury-The-Hundred-Year-Marathon-3572536-z-lib.org_.pdf