Do you see what I see in the image you linked? This isn't what "underwater" is.
Look at the column on the extreme right. Add up the blue ones. Then add up the red ones. Which is bigger? Blue or red? Spoiler: It's red, by three points.
So, those polls had (avg) the LPC ahead of the CPC by three points.
And the CPC actually finished 1.22 points ahead of the LPC.
So that's actually a total error 4.22 points (CPC underpolled).
It doesn't. Look at the Nova Scotia election. In 2017 the Liberals got 158k votes. Now they got 153k votes. The NDP got even more votes and they should shit their pants even more according to your theory.
So, we're using N.S as an analogy now? Ok, CPC majority it is!
We both know that the CPC has not only to be like 5 points ahead, but the NDP has to poll over 20%. Otherwise say hello again to another 4 years of Troupe.
Sounds like someone's been swallowing blackpills again.
Look at the column on the extreme right. Add up the blue ones. Then add up the red ones. Which is bigger?
Do you know what the definition of underwater is? A lead of 3% is still in the error range of every poll. Underwater would be double digits behind.
So, those polls had (avg) the LPC ahead of the CPC by three points.
The average of these five polls on election day was 32.1% for the LPC and 31.4% for the CPC. A .7% difference.
So, we're using N.S as an analogy now? Ok, CPC majority it is!
Do you just pretend to be retarded? I showed you that the turnout for Liberal voters barely went down while you proclaim they will shit their pants and stay at home. This will not happen on the scale you would like it to happen.
Sounds like someone's been swallowing blackpills again.
Look at the column on the extreme right. Add up the blue ones. Then add up the red ones. Which is bigger? Blue or red? Spoiler: It's red, by three points.
So, those polls had (avg) the LPC ahead of the CPC by three points. And the CPC actually finished 1.22 points ahead of the LPC. So that's actually a total error 4.22 points (CPC underpolled).
A fraction the size of the CPC's
So, we're using N.S as an analogy now? Ok, CPC majority it is!
Sounds like someone's been swallowing blackpills again.
Do you know what the definition of underwater is? A lead of 3% is still in the error range of every poll. Underwater would be double digits behind.
The average of these five polls on election day was 32.1% for the LPC and 31.4% for the CPC. A .7% difference.
Do you just pretend to be retarded? I showed you that the turnout for Liberal voters barely went down while you proclaim they will shit their pants and stay at home. This will not happen on the scale you would like it to happen.
Sponsored by the CPC carbon tax my friend.