Some of the NDP support that's skyrocketing in the polls right now will vote for Liberals out of strategy. This happened last time where the NDP poll high but then do worse on election day because some of them sober up and vote strategically to prevent a CPC victory.
Another problem with the NDP vote is that in contrary to 2019, people won't be able to vote at universities. And students vote like 40% for the NDP. No polling stations at universities will depress the youth turn out. I wonder if pollster account for this.
That's a rise of 7% a day, so if my math checks out then by election day the CPC should have a 175% chance of winning!
215%. You forgot they are already at 40%.
Oh yeah LOL. They're a shoo-in!
Some of us are old enough to remember when Harper led in the polls a few weeks before the election in 2015. Or when Scheer did the same.
Some of the NDP support that's skyrocketing in the polls right now will vote for Liberals out of strategy. This happened last time where the NDP poll high but then do worse on election day because some of them sober up and vote strategically to prevent a CPC victory.
Another problem with the NDP vote is that in contrary to 2019, people won't be able to vote at universities. And students vote like 40% for the NDP. No polling stations at universities will depress the youth turn out. I wonder if pollster account for this.
Inb4 a video appears where O'Toole calls Quebecois faggots or something similar.
Would that change anything though? Quebec doesn't vote conservative anyway and this might increase his numbers with the other provinces.
The Cons have 10 MPs in Quebec. And it would cost them votes in NB and Ontario also.
Two weeks before the election in 2015 Harper was ahead in the polls and then lost by 8 points. It's too late when the polls close.