5.8 million voted in advanced polls. Compared to 4.9 million in the 2019 election.
(twitter.com)
ELXN44
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Your numbers are expressing higher advanced polling turnout when the incumbent loses (on top of a general increase over time).
https://i.imgur.com/qgTUx0C.png
And if not for the covid factor, the increase in advance polling turnout this year would indicate that Trudeau is about to get ass-blasted into outer space by the Conservatives.
The NS election was an omen I think.
It depends on how you plot it. If you look at the elections as single events without the time between it, then there is no pattern.
https://imgur.com/AUXK8fB.png
Only if you account for the time between the election, then yeah ...
The NS election didn't have the PPC running.
Last election nearly half of declared PPCers came to their senses at the ballot box.
https://i.imgur.com/0us64Ni.png