I can speak to what I have learned. I believe that what I have learned is based on repeatably verifiable empirical observation. Based on that, I will say:
In theory survival rates would be better if vaccines were only deployed to at-risk populations. They're typically deployed to healthy populations only when eradication is on the table due to the virus in question being genetically stable.
The theoretical basis would be that healthy populations would get hit hard and fast and provide enough naive hosts that there wouldn't be evolutionary pressure on escape. It'd likely go the normal route of becoming more specific to the upper respiratory tract which makes it spread faster while being milder. While this is happening, vaccinated at-risk people get infected and benefit from vaccination long enough to make it to the hospital to get cleared by monoclonal antibodies. Fewer elderly people die in this scenario.
What follows is political/economic opinion:
And with profit to be made from naive hosts, there is incentive to treat people who are sick so we don't have a reason to forget how protease inhibitors and coronavirus replication works so existing treatments are allowed to be deployed while magic bullets are aggressively refined that do what they do more specifically.
I think that something extremely perverse happened regarding treatments.
I think that politicians went ham on vaccinating everyone because western governments have codified human rights and coercing just the elderly and sick and disabled would have been shot down in court. Attacking everyone equally and repeating lies and propping up epidemiologists to feign misunderstanding of their own discipline as a white lie to get the few who should be treated treated. Not that they gave much of a fuck past hiding the embarrassing low capacity of our health systems to absorb hundreds of extra critically ill people on a national scale. The PHO's mandates were to keep healthcare from breaking. Saving people and not persons.
Oh wow this is embarrassing for the fat boomer. YIKES.
You didn’t understand a word u/itlivesinthewind wrote.
Tuchodi is unable to address any of the points u/itlivesinthewind highlighted, because Tuchodi doesn’t have a clue what a protease is, let alone a protease inhibitor.
Tuchodi doesn’t have a clue what naive host means.
So in response to an intelligent comment, the fat boomer copy pasted a random guess piece from a blogger. Why did you copy paste the personal opinion of Faye Flam Tuchodi?
Faye Flam is a blogger with a journalism degree. Good to know you take medical advice from random bloggers.
Get boosted Tuchodi. You’re old and fat. And you are at risk of death from any cold or flu. Comply with your government and go get your heart damage juice now.
Folks, Jesse Bloom, Ph.D., is a professor of the basic sciences division and Herbold Computational Biology Program at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. He studies evolution using viruses and viral proteins as models.
Dr. Roby Bhattacharyya is an assistant Professor, Massachusetts General Hospital Department of Medicine, Infectious Diseases Division. He is also an associate Member at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, and an assistant Professor at Harvard Medical School. I think this passage is worth repeating: "Bhattacharyya pointed to a study he led last year showing that vaccination probably didn’t accelerate the initial omicron wave — omicron spread equally fast in highly vaccinated states as in poorly vaccinated states. (The big difference, other studies showed, is that more people died in states with low vaccination rates.)"
I don't care to dox myself. It's easily done these days, especially if someone gets to boasting about rare credentials or demonstrates expertise across more than one discipline. Phrase based fingerprinting is bad enough that a person should be changing up their writing style if they're going to be saying controversial things in controversial places.
The studies you're pointing at aren't saying what you think they are. Omicron spreads equally fast in both populations because it is less affected by bloodborne immunity than the ancestral and delta strains. It replicates in the upper respiratory tract @ 77X the ancestral strain's replication rate. It has increased specificity for those tissues and would be better addressed by mucosal immunity and more specific antibodies. Neither of which a vaccinee has. It's a tabula rasa situation.
I did mention that bloodborne antibodies do help when the infection progresses incredibly slowly to the lower lungs where the blood-oxygen exchange is happening. Not as much as you think because of COVID-19's pathology and tendency to form multi-nucleated tumor-like masses instead of lysing cells. The multinucleated masses also are not detected by the vaccinee's system.
There will be confounding factors in states with low vaccination rates. If you're taking absolute numbers, they probably burnt through the infection more quickly for behavioural reasons. It would have also been winter/spring so you'd have to look at past years and comparable influenza outbreaks. Also consider the "load" and triage states of a given state at that time of year. Also the age of the population (Florida snowbirds and retiree). Also the definitions used for vaccinated. Also lockdowns. Also the typical capacity of the hospitals in an area.
It's a lot and most statistical research doesn't consider these kinds of variables past seeing if the model they selected passes some sanity checks in the numbers being spit out.
Scientists have become increasingly sloppy with the past couple decade's changes to academic culture and the move toward the Replicability Crisis.
You are quoting hypotheticals, grasping at straws, attempting to cover up the blatant failure of the government mandated injections , knowing that the triple vaxed are dying at higher rates, and still too slow and too illiterate to address the actual points that u/itlivesinthewimd highlights.
We just want you to comply with your government and keep following your POLITICO experts Tuchodi. Get boosted often and soon.
I can speak to what I have learned. I believe that what I have learned is based on repeatably verifiable empirical observation. Based on that, I will say:
In theory survival rates would be better if vaccines were only deployed to at-risk populations. They're typically deployed to healthy populations only when eradication is on the table due to the virus in question being genetically stable.
The theoretical basis would be that healthy populations would get hit hard and fast and provide enough naive hosts that there wouldn't be evolutionary pressure on escape. It'd likely go the normal route of becoming more specific to the upper respiratory tract which makes it spread faster while being milder. While this is happening, vaccinated at-risk people get infected and benefit from vaccination long enough to make it to the hospital to get cleared by monoclonal antibodies. Fewer elderly people die in this scenario.
What follows is political/economic opinion:
And with profit to be made from naive hosts, there is incentive to treat people who are sick so we don't have a reason to forget how protease inhibitors and coronavirus replication works so existing treatments are allowed to be deployed while magic bullets are aggressively refined that do what they do more specifically.
I think that something extremely perverse happened regarding treatments.
I think that politicians went ham on vaccinating everyone because western governments have codified human rights and coercing just the elderly and sick and disabled would have been shot down in court. Attacking everyone equally and repeating lies and propping up epidemiologists to feign misunderstanding of their own discipline as a white lie to get the few who should be treated treated. Not that they gave much of a fuck past hiding the embarrassing low capacity of our health systems to absorb hundreds of extra critically ill people on a national scale. The PHO's mandates were to keep healthcare from breaking. Saving people and not persons.
It seems like half a dozen major variants showed up on their own before the vaccines went into general use.
And
"it’s misleading to suggest that vaccines are making our situation worse — without them, we’d still see immune-evading variants, and those infections would be causing more deaths." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/no-vaccines-arent-making-new-covid-variants-worse/2023/01/05/2d04e754-8cfd-11ed-b86a-2e3a77336b8e_story.html
Oh wow this is embarrassing for the fat boomer. YIKES.
You didn’t understand a word u/itlivesinthewind wrote.
Tuchodi is unable to address any of the points u/itlivesinthewind highlighted, because Tuchodi doesn’t have a clue what a protease is, let alone a protease inhibitor.
Tuchodi doesn’t have a clue what naive host means.
So in response to an intelligent comment, the fat boomer copy pasted a random guess piece from a blogger. Why did you copy paste the personal opinion of Faye Flam Tuchodi? Faye Flam is a blogger with a journalism degree. Good to know you take medical advice from random bloggers.
Get boosted Tuchodi. You’re old and fat. And you are at risk of death from any cold or flu. Comply with your government and go get your heart damage juice now.
It's frustrating. I've had the leaky vaccine and weighted probability talk here before. I appreciate you weighing in.
Folks, Jesse Bloom, Ph.D., is a professor of the basic sciences division and Herbold Computational Biology Program at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. He studies evolution using viruses and viral proteins as models.
Dr. Roby Bhattacharyya is an assistant Professor, Massachusetts General Hospital Department of Medicine, Infectious Diseases Division. He is also an associate Member at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, and an assistant Professor at Harvard Medical School. I think this passage is worth repeating: "Bhattacharyya pointed to a study he led last year showing that vaccination probably didn’t accelerate the initial omicron wave — omicron spread equally fast in highly vaccinated states as in poorly vaccinated states. (The big difference, other studies showed, is that more people died in states with low vaccination rates.)"
I'm sorry - who is u/itlivesinthewind?
I don't care to dox myself. It's easily done these days, especially if someone gets to boasting about rare credentials or demonstrates expertise across more than one discipline. Phrase based fingerprinting is bad enough that a person should be changing up their writing style if they're going to be saying controversial things in controversial places.
The studies you're pointing at aren't saying what you think they are. Omicron spreads equally fast in both populations because it is less affected by bloodborne immunity than the ancestral and delta strains. It replicates in the upper respiratory tract @ 77X the ancestral strain's replication rate. It has increased specificity for those tissues and would be better addressed by mucosal immunity and more specific antibodies. Neither of which a vaccinee has. It's a tabula rasa situation.
I did mention that bloodborne antibodies do help when the infection progresses incredibly slowly to the lower lungs where the blood-oxygen exchange is happening. Not as much as you think because of COVID-19's pathology and tendency to form multi-nucleated tumor-like masses instead of lysing cells. The multinucleated masses also are not detected by the vaccinee's system.
There will be confounding factors in states with low vaccination rates. If you're taking absolute numbers, they probably burnt through the infection more quickly for behavioural reasons. It would have also been winter/spring so you'd have to look at past years and comparable influenza outbreaks. Also consider the "load" and triage states of a given state at that time of year. Also the age of the population (Florida snowbirds and retiree). Also the definitions used for vaccinated. Also lockdowns. Also the typical capacity of the hospitals in an area.
It's a lot and most statistical research doesn't consider these kinds of variables past seeing if the model they selected passes some sanity checks in the numbers being spit out.
Scientists have become increasingly sloppy with the past couple decade's changes to academic culture and the move toward the Replicability Crisis.
???
What a useless uneducated reply.
You are quoting hypotheticals, grasping at straws, attempting to cover up the blatant failure of the government mandated injections , knowing that the triple vaxed are dying at higher rates, and still too slow and too illiterate to address the actual points that u/itlivesinthewimd highlights.
We just want you to comply with your government and keep following your POLITICO experts Tuchodi. Get boosted often and soon.