Immunologists went with this. It's not complicated. Vaccine and treatment leakage is credited with giving us patient zero for omicron in South Africa. An immunocompromised person whose system just couldn't purge the remaining reservoirs of virus after treatment with monoclonal antibodies. Natural selection being what it is, we got what we got.
Do you not recall the many Marek's allegories or are you just gaslighting?
Obviously not. The only consolation prize is that he's chained his party to Justin's and is alienating entire generations. The NDP is going to have to reinvent and age out their old guard after him and they fucking deserve it.
I don't know any, but I'm sure if it happened they'd acknowledge it as post-viral syndrome instead of playing identity politics with it.
Thanks for that link!
This is fantastic. I'm with him on all but one point as I'm not 100% on this inducing prion illness. Were I going to engineer something to wipe out humanity, it'd be a prion encoded in a low symptom respiratory virus. Here's hoping that isn't the case here. The litany of issues is long enough without prions.
Canada is on the honour system until the queen steps down off her throne and chastises her prime minister's minister.
Mendicino has no reason to do the honourable thing until either Trudeau cuts him loose and scapegoats him or someone offers him a place in the private sector to parachute into.
The definition of that word has been thoroughly abused. Several pandemics have come and gone. Normally these things are categorized by strain and/or pathology so that people each can be addressed and resolved on its own merits.
Canada's current thinking would have us still referring to first recorded influenza outbreak (1510) as wave 1024 of influenza-1510.
You're right though about natural immunity. The upper respiratory variants will get us there and it'll eventually be one of those things people only worry about in elder care.
I agree. Hysteria and stupidity rule our day.
Only abstinence is 100% effective at stopping infection. But we can't abstain from breathing. We could get close if we were 24/7 in respirators, but this isn't the 12 monkeys plague.
https://archive.ph/ https://12ft.io/
Either of these will get you around paywalls. 95% was the initial claim and was considered good enough that mandates were justified. 95% is well within the threshold for herd immunity at 70% uptake and it seems it actually was with the Wuhan strain, as it's gone extinct. For herd immunity, you need to remove enough vectors to collapse the R0 of a given strain. This either comes about naturally, behaviourally, or is induced through vaccination/prophylaxis/treatment.
For other people's benefit since you seem to give zero shits about efficacy as they pertain to vaccine mandates:
With the delta variant, efficacy fell to 60-80%. Even at the high end, 20% is four times greater than 5%. At the low end, 40% is eight times greater than 5%. So, if it's equally infectious as the origin strain, and we need to remove 70% of vectors, then @80% efficacy we're looking at (70% * .95%)/80% = 83% vaccination rate to stop delta at the high efficacy end or (70% * .95%)/60% = 110% vaccination rate to stop delta at the low efficacy end.
So 83% to 110% of the population needs to be vaccinated to eradicate delta. Adjust the number down for the ratio of naturally immune.
With omicron, efficacy falls to 5-15% for fully vaccinated people at 6 months. The herd immunity threshold is also going to be higher because it's an upper respiratory virus. Let's be generous say that doubling R0 means we only have to halve the # of vectors in the herd immunity equation. So we had 30% or so being infectious = covid just dies. Half of 30% is 15%. We need to remove 85% of people as vectors.
OK. So full vaccination at the high end provides 15% protection against symptomatic infection at the high end. (85% * .95%)/15% = 538% of the population needs to be fully vaccinated to stop the spread. OK that's impossible, so calculating the low end isn't worth it.
But for 2-12 weeks after a third dose, someone has 60-80% protection against infection. So let's see if we can get that number to 100% to eradicate the omicron variant.
(85% * .95%)/80% = 101%
We can sort of maybe eradiate omicron if 100% of the population is perpetually kept at 2-12 weeks since the third dose and it turns out the highest estimates of efficacy for this group are true. They're actually run down for weeks 0-2 though, so 16.667% of the time, people are going to need to be in a hard quarantine.
^^^
This is what you'd have to mandate, by the numbers, to eradicate COVID-19. Assuming naturally immunity doesn't exist.
Just saying that vaccine efficacy has become moot as far as eradication goes and Canada is now counting on blindly blundering out of COVID-19 in a borderline retarded fugue because we can't allow ourselves to understand how things actually work because the preached to masses of hysterical bigots will melt down when release comes from reasons that are forbidden to explain.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/20/health/covid-vaccine-95-effective.html
They claimed it was 95% and 94.5% effective (only 5% and 5.5% of those who got symptomatically infected during the clinical trial were vaccinated).
The demographics represented in the trial should be 95% disease free. Older and sicker people will of course get sick, but math the mathematical comparison of age cohort to age cohort, adjusted for pre-existing conditions, should show that there have been more than twice as many unvaccinated infected as vaccinated. 5% of 90% VS 100% of 10%.
If this is not the case, the vaccine has less efficacy than was claimed. It's baffling that anyone would argue that the 2020 wild spike vaccines targeting a pathogen that replicates primarily in the lungs, are going to have the same efficacy against a distant descendant that's had evolutionary pressures to circumvent reliance on the wild spike and which replicates in the upper respiratory tract. You appear to be that anyone and are incapable of just moving on and admitting that mandates that might have been arguable as appropriate out of an abundance of caution, are no longer proportionate or rational during the omicron waves.
Baffling.
OK, so the war to forcefully erase the control group has yet to be won. It continues and a disturbing number of Canadians are in love with and on board with state sanctioned bigotry. Existing in perpetuity as a burning effigy isn't a win. It's not even peaceably neutral.
I'm anti-mandate. Based on the pre-pandemic words of BioNTech's VP and various deep dives into lipid nanoparticle research, I'm not on board with the mRNA vaccines. The specific protein encoded by these ones is also pretty alarming.
The spike protein activates ACE-2 receptors. For some people this is catastrophic and we're seeing that.
I think we're collectively overlooking the lipid nanoparticle adjuvants though. The ones in Pfizer, at least, are slightly trophic for the adrenal glands, ovaries and eyes. Organs, that when suppressed by ongoing low key inflammation, should result in some pretty wide ranging symptoms.
An article from 2016 quotes the VP of BioNTech shit talking Moderna. https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/13/moderna-therapeutics-biotech-mrna/ "“I would say that mRNA is better suited for diseases where treatment for short duration is sufficiently curative, so the toxicities caused by delivery materials are less likely to occur,” said Katalin Karikó, a pioneer in the field who serves as a vice president at BioNTech."
Nothing really has changed. mRNA protein therapies were meant for one off treatments or individualized therapeutics for old money types. BioNTech made it's name off the latter in Europe. The delivery materials are toxic. The excretion studies from the Pfizer dumps only accounted for 50% of the materials and turned up 0% of the compounds the scientists thought they'd decompose into. Moderna's EU authorization handwaves that they're using a different LNP from the one they were able to supply research on (additional tails on the one in use). But yeah, I kind of think this is going to end up being today's asbestos. The people who took repeated doses are going to get hammered by this. My gut says it will be easiest to detect as adrenal suppression which will be written off as long covid and pandemic depression by lazy general practitioners.
I do think that the % hospitalized isn't going to be reliable for much though. Without knowing the specifics of with/from covid, which strain of covid, comorbidities, and age. It might well just be that the kinds of people who tend to get 3 or 4 shots are already old and sick VS the kinds of people who opt out. There's no way to know if it's apples to apples. It could even be ADE or immunosuppression during the weeks that someone's body is responding to the last dose.
Sadly there's zero academic interest or will in Canada to investigate.
Nothing can protect the very old and the very sick from hospitalization. Canada has so few hospital and spare ICU beds per capita that we had to lose our shit and fabricate a scapegoat so that people would redirect their inevitable frustration away from the government. Most of Canada has to start scaling back ICU-requiring surgeries if more than 1 in 100,000 people become unexpectedly sick. Split people into groups of 100K. In that group there's likely to be someone who's ancient and/or catastrophically ill. Actually nix that, we assume that 9 of them are going to be that sick in normal times. We collapse when a 10th one gets that sick.
The people currently hospitalized with this are the sickest. It's just that it's only 1 in a million getting that sick now so we don't give a shit. COVID-19 isn't doing much of anything on a population scale. Other than serving as a wedge issue for the sitting party.
The irony of this is that that very sickly group OP is harping about here is probably the only group that there's a vaccination argument for. They're the ones that gum up the hospitals and the ones that are hardest to treat. The vaccines are probably having a therapeutic effect in that group and if it turns out that they're the asbestos of our generation, they're the least likely to live long enough to suffer the consequences of that.
For an overwhelming majority of people under 50, the vaccine is just smoke and mirrors because our government wouldn't have survived the lawsuits if they went ageist and forced it on the 50+ people instead of applying blunt force trauma to everyone over age 12.
I guess we'll forgive him and give him the order of Canada while he jerks off to a picture of the guy who lost his license over ivermectin scripts.
Does Vice work for you for the omicron origin? https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgddw4/omicron-variant-interview-with-south-african-doctor
National Geographic has a light article on Marek's here, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/leaky-vaccines-enhance-spread-of-deadlier-chicken-viruses
I'm going to explain the concept of leakiness and hopefully personalize it some.
The measure of vaccine "leakiness" is the extend to which it fails to be sterilizing in vaccinees as they encounter the pathogen. VS the alpha variant, sure, there was a reasonable expectation that the average (young + healthy) vaccinee's infection wouldn't hit viral loads high enough to allow for a extensive transmission. Amongst the kinds of people you want vaccinated, it wasn't good enough. See outbreaks of alpha in care homes. But this isn't unexpected since a vaccine requires a healthy immune response.
Where this starts to become a huge problem is with the fall delta wave. Where vaccination is no longer specific for the strain going around AND vaccinees are starting to be 3-6 months out from their last dose. We're dropping from 80-95% reductions in transmission to 60-80 and 40-60 ( go back through these https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports if you care to dig into it it's usually around page 13 depending on the week but the post omicron studies cited aren't great but we're not really talking about those ).
Anyway, when you have replication toward transmission occurring in significant numbers of vaccinees, you create a situation where "leaky vaccines" start worrying people.
The vaccinee is rarely going to experience reduced severity. This protects an evolved strain from rendering itself non-transmissible on account of causing worse symptoms. With a virus, there comes a point where it incapacitates the host to such a degree that it's easily detected and/or the host is in no position to carry it to new hosts. There are social exceptions like Ebola and some African funeral customs, shitty PPE, etc. But here we'd have someone like yourself maybe getting delta and maybe not really knowing. Perhaps you're young and healthy and motivated to go about your day after thinking you just under slept or ate something off. Being delta, your body's vaccine head start isn't good. It starts replicating. Millions of replications occur. Many on point. Most dead ends. Maybe a small handful are beneficial.
But some of those symptom increasing dead ends aren't dead ends for you. You're now a reservoir for a new deadlier strain of covid-19. Not noticeably deadlier to young, healthy, vaccinees but perhaps it does noticeably more damage older and less healthy vaccinees and definitely lays out unvaccinated people. And before you say GOOD!, unvaccinated people are primarily small children.
This is why we traditionally restrict non-sterilizing vaccination to those who need it. The old, the unwell, and those who will be exposed often having to deal with higher initial viral loads. These people are going to be brought low by infection or will be in medical environments where contact tracing will be possible.
*There's a caveat here that the deadlier strain being passed along by the vaccinee will likely be in a reduced number of particles and so they might need to expose an immunocompromised intermediary. It's a gas + match situation.