Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin
She was in the news earlier this year for being ejected from the PC caucus for promoting a blockade of a highway near the NS/NB border.
She was just re-elected an Independent with 52% of the vote, the PC candidate earned 9%.
Yes these PCs are left wing and Covid heavy, but I believe this vote represents, in large part at least, a rebuke of the Liberals and their Covid extremism. I think the right wing must have had a massive turnout. NS is one of the most liberal regions in the country.
Did everyone pick up on the story of the median unvaccinated person being a 42 female suburban mother?
If this passion is replicated amongst the soccer moms of the 905, and the right wing has a near complete turnout.. There’s reason to hope Turdeau gets Gerald Buttfucked.
I suspect JT might get told to tone down slightly on the covid rhetoric, even after the double down today.
Then again now the Liberals are wise, and if they were considering cheating before, they’re drawing up the plans now.
Apologies for the ramblings, but It’s been a while since I’ve felt optimism.
I'm wondering if the vaccine hesitancy from women in their 40s is due to the fact that they have young teens/children and they don't like that they are asking them to get vaxxed.
If we can project this onto the federal election, the Liberals will underperform by about three points and the Conservatives will overperform by about three points.
The PPC on the other hand will underperform by default (Minor parties always do. The PPC only got half the votes pollsters predicted they would in 2019).
The PPC's aggregate polling average is sitting at 2.6% right now. So even if you project this covid-bonus onto the PPC proportionately according to how it happened with the PCs in Nova Scotia, that would at most bump them up 2.8% which is still zero seat territory. And that's without even factoring in the fact that they poll about twice as high as their actual results will show, being a tiny minor party.
That’s a reasonable hypothesis, but this isn’t a typical election cycle.
I think it’s not unlikely Bernier takes Beauce. Even if he hits the 3% -4% range without a riding that’s a big win for him.
His freedom message is attractive to many conservatives, and in ridings where it doesn’t matter he’s going to get some decent votes.
Debates will be very interesting.