As of now (7 am on September 21st), the Conservatives and the PPC handed 25 seats to the Liberals or the NDP by splitting the vote. This includes the Yukon where a former CPC candidate split the vote by running as Independent. And after all mail-in ballots are counted, the PPC will most likely tripled their voter share, from 290k votes to almost 900k votes, without picking up a single seat.
Missed opportunities on both sides and a failed strategy by O'Toole. The Conservatives picked up voters in the Altantics, but not as many as some predicted. The split with the PPC lost them another two or three seats. What the Conservatives gained in the most eastern provinces, they lost in the most western ones. The Liberals picked up two seats in Alberta. Another 6 seats were handed to the Liberals or the NDP in BC by splitting the vote. The Liberals came in only in third place in BC (overall votes), but they picked up the most seats. Quebec is frog country. Nothing changed there. Bloc and the Libs continue to dominate. As for Ontario ... the GTA seems like a lost cause. Outside of the GTA 14 seats were handed to the Libs/NDP, again the Conservatives and the PPC splitting their vote.
The PPC voters will say that the Conservatives deserved it. The die hard Conservatives will call the PPC traitors. In the end this will lead to just another Liberal win.
Personally I don't think the pick ups by the Conservatives in the Atlantics were made due to O'Toole pandering to the left. But I strongly believe that O'Toole lost in the West by pandering too much to the left and thus losing voters to the PPC. Same goes for the suburbs of Toronto and Ottawa, were the Conservatives could have made their way in. Hard to say what the Conservatives and O'Toole will do now. It seems like the wants to stay as leader. Maybe we will see a challenger, but I'm not too optimistic.
If every last PPC vote had gone to CPC, the CPC would have won. https://i.imgur.com/jK9Z8fT.png
They would have won a minority government. 144 is far from 170.
The problem is... Who would have propped them up? The Bloc.
At what cost would it have been to the CPC brand to maintain that. Both financially and in overall voter support if the Bloc later on pulled their support or extorted it so badly that the CPC became the most hated party in Canada.
That's still better than another four years of Trudeau.
They'd have done the same thing previous conservative minority governments did - use their time in office to build the electorate's confidence, and then turn their minority into a majority when the opposition calls an election.
It's not that I don't believe that your premise has validity.
It is the timing, circumstances and that O'Toole lacked the charisma and ability to achieve it.
The CPC needs a leader that exudes charisma and power in the era of shallow facades. A combination of a Conservative Trudeau & Poilievre.