Yeah it's known fact that minor parties usually overpoll because a segment of the minor party's supporters will to tell a pollster they're voting for the minor party, but then come to their senses in the polling booth and decide at the last minute not to throw their votes away.
The PPC's polling average the day before the 2019 election was 3.0%.
They ended up with 1.6% of the actual vote.
The PPC's polling average the day before the 2021 election was 7.0%.
They ended up with 3.3% of the actual vote.
So with weak CPC leaders like Scheer and O'Toole, you could expect the PPC's actual results to be about half of what their polling numbers predicted.
I imagine they'll get even a smaller ratio with PP as leader.
Half of them will flip when push comes to shove
Yeah it's known fact that minor parties usually overpoll because a segment of the minor party's supporters will to tell a pollster they're voting for the minor party, but then come to their senses in the polling booth and decide at the last minute not to throw their votes away.
The PPC's polling average the day before the 2019 election was 3.0%. They ended up with 1.6% of the actual vote.
The PPC's polling average the day before the 2021 election was 7.0%. They ended up with 3.3% of the actual vote.
So with weak CPC leaders like Scheer and O'Toole, you could expect the PPC's actual results to be about half of what their polling numbers predicted.
I imagine they'll get even a smaller ratio with PP as leader.
Yea that was me with Scheer.
Then I followed through and picked Bernier over the Tool.
This time Poilievre has me fully back in.